U.S. elections

Back in 2008, Barack Obama ran a youthful presidential campaign, promising hope and change. He leaves office this year maybe a little humbler – and certainly much greyer.

As Obama gives his farewell address in Chicago Tuesday night – at a time of great uncertainty in U.S. politics – he leaves behind what many political observers describe as a more divided country. His successor Donald Trump has promised to roll back many of Obama’s signature achievements in health-care and climate change policy.

Ronald Pruessen, a history professor in the Faculty of Arts & Science and the Munk School of Global Affairs, is currently writing a book about Obama. This year, he began teaching an undergraduate course on the Obama presidency, focusing on successes, failures and Obama's place in history.

The author of a Pulitzer Prize-nominated biography of U.S. Secretary of State John Foster Dulles, Pruessen has long studied current U.S. policymaking from a historian's perspective.

“I've come to spotlight Obama partially because he's the (or 'a') key current exemplar of American policymaking and thinking – and because he's a complex, impressive and fascinating individual,” he said. “I may shift some of my emphasis to Trump in the months ahead, but I doubt that it will be nearly as satisfying.”

Read Pruessen's Newsweek op-ed "Trump's Campaign: A Barnum and Bailey World"

Finger on the Twitter? �鶹��Ƶ expert analyzes @realDonaldTrump

geoff.vendeville — Mon, 09 Jan 2017 15:23:40 +0000

Finger on the Twitter? �鶹��Ƶ expert analyzes @realDonaldTrump

geoff.vendeville Mon, 01/09/2017 - 10:23

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U.S. President-elect Donald Trump answers questions from the media last month in Florida (photo by Don Emmert/AFP/Getty Images)

Geoffrey Vendeville

Author legacy

Geoffrey Vendeville

Topic

The 26th president of the United States, Theodore Roosevelt, coined the phrase “bully pulpit” to describe the influence he wielded from the White House. For him, “bully” was an adjective meaning “excellent” or “first-rate.”

U.S President-elect Donald Trump has found his pulpit even before his inauguration: his Twitter account.

Since joining the platform in 2009, Donald Trump has amassed about 18 million followers at @realDonaldTrump – surpassing even the number of @POTUS followers, though he still has fewer than @BarackObama.

In messages of 140 characters or less, Trump has attacked foreign nations like China, rattled giant car manufacturers and pursued personal vendettas. China's state news agency last week retorted with the headline, “An obsession with Twitter foreign policy is undesirable.”

Early Monday morning, Trump lashed out at actress Meryl Streep who criticized him the night before during her Golden Globes speech for the lifetime achievement award. Trump tweeted that Streep was "one of the most over-rated actresses in Hollywood" and a "Hillary flunky."

Once he takes office Jan. 20, will Trump take a more presidential approach to social media?

�鶹��Ƶ News spoke with Alex Hanna, an assistant professor at �鶹��Ƶ Mississauga's Institute of Communication, Culture, Information and Technology and �鶹��Ƶ's Faculty of Information to get some insight. Hanna's research focuses on new and social media.

Obama is known as a social media savvy president. How does his style differ from Trump’s?

The Obama campaign was a very net savvy data-driven organization in 2008. The platform was still pretty new – it started in 2006. He was able to get an immense number of followers and used them as a pillar for fundraising.

As president, Barack Obama has been social media savvy. His White House was a very Vox.com-type of operation. They have video content, articles and a staff photographer who's catching Obama in candid shots. He's using social media in a way that's effective, but it's very manicured, very planned.

Donald Trump has a more chaotic approach. It doesn't seem planned. There are two theories on his social media usage. Either he's playing this incredibly complex ten-dimensional chess where he's seeing 20 moves in the future, and he's intentionally setting his surrogates against him – or he is actually chaotic. Occam's Razor tells us to go with the simplest explanation.

His account @realDonaldTrump has an even larger following than the presidential @POTUS account. Do you expect him to take over @POTUS after his inauguration? And will his tone change?

In the middle of 2016, people thought there would be this pivot and he was going to be more presidential, but I don't think that will happen. I expect he will keep his own handle because it's such a part of his brand. People have come to expect a particular kind of Twitter usage from that brand.

I think some of the tweets from the @POTUS account will be from his advisers and campaign staff.

There is a data analyst called David Robinson who did an analysis during the election in which he tried to determine which tweets were coming from Trump and which were by his campaign staff. He did a sentiment analysis in which he found the tweets that were generally angrier tweeted at bizarre times like 3 or 6 a.m. – those [were labelled as] Twitter for Android. While those that seemed more measured and more promotional were coming from an iPhone. I don't think there will be many iPhone tweets from @realDonaldTrump. Those would be migrated to @POTUS.

Is there something about the Twitter platform that just suits Trump's personality?

There's this idea in the literature on social media that Twitter itself produces this type of micro celebrity. It's the type of person who can present their thoughts in condensed form, tweet frequently, and produce easily digestible video content.

Even before he declared his candidacy, Trump was a micro celebrity. His first foray into politics was surrounding the birther movement.

He went off on other celebrities and institutions. He built up his Twitter following unlike other politicians, even though his party continues to use the platform in a measured, restricted way. Trump's personal style definitely lends itself to Twitter.

Trump is known for attacking people on Twitter. The New York Times printed a list of 289 people, places and things he's insulted. Will the tone of these tweets affect political discourse?

At least some of his tweets have brought out some ugly impulses in American civic life. His statements on immigration, building the border wall and creating a registry of U.S. Muslims have found some support in the U.S. electorate. And that's frightening. There was also his "Lock her up!" rhetoric about Hillary Clinton.

Some of that has seeped into U.S. discourse, and those are things I find most alarming about his language.

What kind of challenge does Trump’s tweeting pose for journalists trying to cover the White House?

One of the reasons Trump likes Twitter is that he gets to set the terms of the debate. He can be unpredictable. And he knows that when he tweets there will be press coverage.

There's a debate among journalists and people who study political communication about what the press should be doing here. The press is having a tough time. On the one hand, people are saying we need to have a heightened state of alarm and cover everything he says, a tweet could cause the next world war. These things have geopolitical and monetary consequences.

The other side says we need to hang back and not go nuts over every tweet. In some ways, they distract from more pressing issues like his business ties and possible conflicts of interest.

Donald Trump shaking up policy before inauguration: �鶹��Ƶ expert

ullahnor — Wed, 04 Jan 2017 21:24:12 +0000

Donald Trump shaking up policy before inauguration: �鶹��Ƶ expert

ullahnor Wed, 01/04/2017 - 16:24

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A Chinese magazine with a front page story naming US President-elect Donald Trump as their Person of the Year (photo by Greg Baker/AFP/Getty Images)

Noreen Ahmed-Ullah

Author legacy

Noreen Ahmed-Ullah

Topic

Faculty of Arts & Science

Subheadline

"It’s an interesting question whether Trump understands how damaging all this is to U.S. influence and prestige"

Donald Trump’s inauguration is still three weeks away, but he’s been influencing policy and global markets since the day after his election as the next U.S. president.

On Monday – under repeated criticism from Trump – Ford Motor Company announced it would cancel plans to build a small-car assembly plant in Mexico. Just a few hours earlier, Trump had threatened to impose tariffs on cars made in Mexico by General Motors Corporation.

He’s created waves in China over the “One China Policy” after taking a call from Taiwanese leader Tsai Ing-wen. China regards Taiwan as a renegade province, and the One China Policy says there's only one state called “China.” Not only has Trump been attacking Beijing over Taiwan via his Twitter account, but he has taken jabs at China over trade, the South China Sea and North Korea. The state news agency this week responded with the headline “An obsession with Twitter foreign policy is undesirable.”

The Trump effect may have also led House Republicans to back down on plans to weaken the independent Office of Congressional Ethics.

�鶹��Ƶ News asked Carla Norrlof, an associate professor of political science at �鶹��Ƶ Scarborough, about Trump driving change even before he takes office.

How has Trump already influenced policy and actions?

We’re dealing with three different effects.

First, there are the things Trump claims he’s influenced, like “bringing back jobs”, e.g., Sprint and OneWeb, which he didn’t influence. They were planned before the election.

But there’s a second form of diffuse influence, which reflects a growing responsiveness to the priorities of the incoming president. If the president-elect calls a company’s plans an “absolute disgrace” and threatens to slap border taxes on a rival producing in Mexico, U.S. business might see an interest in foregoing the plant abroad as Ford did in scrapping their $1.6-billion plant in Mexico.

Whatever one’s stance on Trumponomics, there’s a scarier manifestation. His policies and language have received high approval ratings from far-right populist leaders and authoritarian regimes. He’s distanced himself somewhat but some of his nominations, along with the “New Year’s speech,” reintroduced some ambiguity.

Third, there's reckless influence – muddying the One China policy, razzing China over North Korea. The spar with China reflects his deep-seated belief that other countries are free-riding on the U.S. economically while not doing enough to help the U.S. strategically.

Before Trump, has any incoming president ever triggered actions by foreign countries and industries before taking office?

Presidential transitions have not always been smooth. Recently, it was for instance revealed that President Richard Nixon asked his aide H.R. Haldeman to “monkey wrench” President Lyndon B. Johnson’s 1968 peace initiative.

But up until now, no presidential candidate or president-elect, has encouraged, and defended allegations against, a foreign power interfering in U.S. elections. All the evidence regarding Russia’s involvement hasn’t been disclosed yet but we do know Trump asked Russia to “find those emails.”

Is this damaging?

It’s an interesting question whether Trump understands how damaging all this is to U.S. influence and prestige. From afar, it looks very messy, signaling deep divisions in a landscape wide open for rivals to exploit.

Fallout from the U.S. presidential election: �鶹��Ƶ experts dissect the issues

ullahnor — Wed, 23 Nov 2016 16:08:01 +0000

Fallout from the U.S. presidential election: �鶹��Ƶ experts dissect the issues

ullahnor Wed, 11/23/2016 - 11:08

Cutline

�鶹��Ƶ's Aisha Ahmad, Chris Cochrane, Alison Braley-Rattai, Matthew Hoffmann and Renan Levine (left to right) spoke at a �鶹��Ƶ Scarborough panel discussion, reflecting on a Trump presidency (photo by Ken Jones)

Don Campbell

Author legacy

Don Campbell

Topic

The election of Donald Trump has created a great deal of anxiety among Americans, Canadians and people around the world. Everyone is trying to fully grasp what a Trump presidency will actually mean.

To provide some clarity, University of Toronto political scientists invited students and community members to an open forum Monday at �鶹��Ƶ Scarborough where they could pick the experts’ brains on a variety of topics surrounding the election.

“I am proud to be part of a university that respects the views of others and where we create spaces for students, faculty and staff to discuss these issues,” said �鶹��Ƶ Scarborough Principal Bruce Kidd, who provided the opening remarks.

“We want to understand the issues, the process, and the result of this election and what it means for America, for Canadians, and for citizens around the world.”

Read �鶹��Ƶ News story on the results of the election

The audience raised a wide range of topics for the �鶹��Ƶ Scarborough experts such as international security, foreign policy, environmental and energy policy, the treatment of Muslims and minority groups, immigration policy, and how Canada will be affected by a Trump government.

Asked whether a registry of Muslims living in the United States was possible, Aisha Ahmad, an assistant professor and event organizer, said there are many legal mechanisms and constitutional constraints in place that will make it hard to accomplish. She added that the U.S. has always been a staunch defender of liberal democratic ideals.

“If minority rights and civil liberties are eroded in the U.S. it would have serious implications internationally,” said Ahmad, who is also affiliated with the Munk School of Global Affairs. “The U.S. has always led on these principles and to fall back on this commitment would signal a serious decline in leadership, and something we should pay close attention to.”

The event was organized by �鶹��Ƶ Scarborough Assistant Professor of Political Science Aisha Ahmad

Professor Matthew Hoffmann, who is co-director of the Munk School of Global Affairs' Environmental Governance Lab, said he is less optimistic about the chances of a registry not being created, adding that while Trump’s transition team could be floating the idea to appease the far right, he could also be testing out the idea with more mainstream Republicans.

Assistant Professor Renan Levine added that talk about the registry could also be a ploy to distract from other controversial policies that are being worked on.

“We all need to be vigilant that this isn’t just a cloud of smoke meant to distract us from the real fire, and that is the other policies Trump could be trying to push through.”

Read �鶹��Ƶ News story on what to expect from a Trump presidency

As for what Canada can do if Trump carries through with a registry for Muslims, all agreed that from a legal standpoint not much can be done aside from public disapproval.

�鶹��Ƶ Scarborough student Zabikhulla Yari asked what the implications of a Trump presidency will mean generally for Canada.

Associate Professor Chris Cochrane said he hopes the Trudeau government is closely studying how possible American isolationism will affect Canada.

“Canada may be forced to look beyond the U.S. and to diversify. We may not be able to do this militarily, but maybe economically. I hope our government is thinking about these issues,” he says.

Hoffmann said that the Keystone XL Pipeline Project will certainly be back on the agenda again given Trump’s vociferous support of the fossil fuel industry throughout his campaign.

“Canada generally follows the U.S. when it comes to its energy and climate policy, so it will have some hard decisions to make – either take a progressive approach on climate policy or pursue the construction of the Keystone pipeline.”

Asking a question on Facebook, Camille Galindez wanted to know why Hillary Clinton was unable to hold on to the white working class vote the same way Obama had.

Assistant Professor Alison Braley-Rattai says the shift away from Clinton spoke to a larger failure by the Democrats to adequately address economic uncertainty among voters.

“In the modern economy, it’s harder to shift jobs, and it must be said that many felt Obama didn’t do enough to address their interests,” she said. She added that many felt Clinton was just a continuation of Obama, and that many voters are still angry over the bailouts large banks received following the financial crisis of 2008.

While perceptions about the economy among white voters was certainly a factor, Hoffmann added there is a host of factors including a desire for change, immigration reform as well as bigotry and even misogyny that led to an erosion of support for the Democrats.

“I think a moderate Republican would have been a heavy favourite in this election,” said Hoffmann. “The fact it was so close came down to Trump’s personality being so unlikable.”

Kidd referred to a joint letter signed by more than 100 college and university presidents across America urging President-elect Donald Trump to take a stand against harassment, hate and acts of violence.

“Like the university presidents who signed the letter to President-elect Trump, we too affirm the core values of democracy, human decency, equal rights, and freedom of expression,” Kidd said. “The academic community is committed to promoting these values on our campuses and in our communities.”

In a first for �鶹��Ƶ Scarborough, the event was streamed live on Facebook.

What now? �鶹��Ƶ experts discuss policy changes under President Trump

ullahnor — Thu, 10 Nov 2016 16:51:29 +0000

What now? �鶹��Ƶ experts discuss policy changes under President Trump

ullahnor Thu, 11/10/2016 - 11:51

Cutline

Russian dolls in the likeness of U.S. presidents (photo by Mikhail Pochuyev via Getty)

Romi Levine

Noreen Ahmed-Ullah

Author legacy

Romi Levine and Noreen Ahmed-Ullah

Topic

Subheadline

As U.S. President-elect Donald Trump prepares to take office, what policy changes can Canada and the world expect

With the shock now wearing off, the world prepares for changes under a Trump presidency.

On Thursday, President-elect Donald Trump met with President Barack Obama to discuss the transition of power. Not on the table were some of the Obama policies Trump has threatened to revoke or change once elected.

At the University of Toronto, experts on Wednesday weighed in on the results of the election. Today, our faculty with expertise in areas such as global climate policy, LGBT issues and health care tackle some of the policies that many expect will be overhauled under Trump.

Climate Change: Matthew Hoffmann

Same-Sex Marriage, LGBT Rights: Brenda Cossman

Planned Parenthood, Obamacare: Raisa Deber, Peter Loewen

Economic Policy: Andreas Park

U.S. President Barack Obama meets with President-elect Donald Trump in the Oval Office on Thursday (photo by Win McNamee/Getty)

Climate Change

We begin with climate change policy. Matthew Hoffmann, a professor of political science at University of Toronto Scarborough and co-director of Munk School’s Environmental Governance Lab talks about international agreements reached at the Paris Climate Conference.

What can we expect from Trump regarding climate change?

It is not hyperbole to say that the Trump administration will likely be a disaster for climate change policy in the United States and for the pursuit of an effective global response to climate change. The risks on climate change policy from this election are manifold and serious. We are likely to see a reversal of the directions and leadership that the Obama administration was pursuing in the U.S. and abroad on emissions reductions and support for renewable energy. Meeting the climate crisis just became much harder than it already was with an engaged United States.

U.S. climate policy is almost certainly headed for a stark, retrograde shift given that the president-elect has described climate change as a hoax perpetrated by the Chinese and that his transition team has already included a noted climate denier as the person heading up the transition at the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Trump made various campaign pledges along the way to gut the EPA entirely and to cut all funding for renewable energy and climate change research.

President Obama’s signature policy, the Clean Power Plan, is also virtually certain to be abandoned both because the new administration will not pursue it, and it is likely that a Supreme Court including a Trump nominee would strike it down anyway. If the Trump administration’s actions in any way match the campaign rhetoric, U.S. climate policy (and energy policy more generally) will be set back decades.

Given that the United States is a key contributor to global emissions and had been looked to for international leadership on global climate action, the damage a Trump administration promises will not be limited to U.S. climate policy. The Trump administration has various means to officially withdraw from the Paris Agreement, or could, just as easily and perhaps with less political fallout, simply not pursue the commitments that the Obama administration put forward in the Paris Agreement (because of a lack of enforcement measures on countries achieving their pledges in the decentralized approach to global climate governance).

In addition, the bilateral deal between the United States and China that paved the way for the Paris Agreement is now in significant doubt. The loss of U.S. leadership on the global stage also has the potential to dampen other countries’ ambitions and pursuit of aggressive climate action.

There is no sugarcoating the potential for serious setbacks on climate change that a Trump administration portends – setbacks that frankly have the potential to make it impossible to stave off some of the worst consequences of climate change and therefore put millions of lives at risk over the coming decades from various climate impacts (sea level rise, changing drought and storm patterns, heat, severe weather and flooding, secondary climate-induced conflict, etc.).

These are the risks of a Trump administration in terms of climate action and policy and we should be clear-eyed about them. However, we should also remember that there are countervailing forces and that even a disastrous Trump administration cannot derail all action on climate change. There is quite a bit of momentum on climate change globally and within the United States that will continue to build in spite of Trump’s election.

The costs of renewable energy relative to fossil fuels continue to fall, and the growth of renewable energy capacity and use worldwide will likely continue to grow rapidly regardless of the results of the U.S. election. Trump almost certainly cannot bring back coal in the United States because of the economics of energy production have shifted so distinctly in the last 10 years.

Internationally, the Paris Agreement is a decentralized approach to climate change so the world does not depend on the U.S. to take action. Every country has designed its own plan. Other countries will need to forge ahead; however, and even redouble their efforts and urgency. Finally, a great deal of action on climate change, especially in North America, takes place at the state/provincial and municipal levels and amongst businesses and NGOs. This is where energy on climate action has been and will need to be moving forward.

A number of post-election reflections that have spread around social media are urging that the election of Trump be met with resolve and organizing to prevent his campaign rhetoric from becoming reality. The world now needs other nations, sub-national actors (cities and provinces), corporations, and NGOs to significantly rally around the cause of climate action. This election must serve as a clarion call to action on climate.

What does this mean for Canada?

The Trump administration will significantly complicate energy and climate policymaking for Canada. First, it is clear that pipeline approval will not be an obstacle from the U.S. side of the border, and I expect that a new Trump administration would offer approval for Keystone XL within weeks if not days of inauguration. However, cooperation on energy and climate change is now significantly uncertain and Canada’s new federal policy on climate change will be significantly out of step with U.S. policy. The notion of a continental approach to energy is in question and such an approach to climate policy is almost certainly dead. This will be a significant challenge for Prime Minister Trudeau to navigate.

Internationally, Canada faces a choice of standing with much of the rest of the world in pursuing urgent action or being sucked into a new North American obstructionism on climate change. Canada no longer needs a decent climate policy to trade-off for pipeline approvals in the United States. The question is whether we will pursue progressive climate policy because it is the right thing to do, especially in the context of open hostility to climate action from the United States.

Protesters gather outside Trump Tower following Trump's win (photo by Drew Angerer/Getty)

Same-Sex Marriage, LGBT Rights

Brenda Cossman, is a professor in the Faculty of Law and she's director of the Mark S. Bonham Centre for Sexual Diversity Studies in the Faculty of Arts & Science. She spoke about same-sex marriage and LGBT issues under threat.

“President-elect Donald Trump does not have an official policy plan on LGBT issues. But he and Mike Pence have repeatedly stated their opposition to LGBT rights. Trump plans to appoint conservative justices to the Supreme Court who he hopes will overturn marriage equality. He has stated his support for local state anti-transgender laws. He has pledged to sign the Republican-backed First Amendment Defence Act, a law that would permit forms of anti-LGBT discrimination on the grounds of religion.

“The Republican party, which controls Congress, passed a platform earlier this year that contained some of the most anti-LGBT provisions in years, including an attack on same-sex parenting and opposing a ban on conversion therapy.

“Together, the executive and legislative branches are committed to undermining all of the LGBT rights advances of the last decade. Together, they can appoint Supreme Court justices who will help carry out this agenda.

“I have no doubt that they will. Because repealing same-sex marriage and supporting anti-trans legislation is a lot cheaper than building a wall. Trump and the Republican Congress can deliver on their hateful promises to their base with relatively little cost. And the cost to LGBT lives is not part of the equation.”

Planned Parenthood, Obamacare

Raisa Deber, a professor at the Dalla Lana School of Public Health Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation spoke about Planned Parenthood and potential changes to Obamacare.

What will the next four years look like under Donald Trump?

Trump was incredibly vague about exactly what he was planning. He had a number of overall goals but he never really said how he was going to get there.

One of the things that is interesting is that because the Republicans took both the House and the Senate and have been talking about stacking the courts, there aren’t really a lot of blocking points. What the Republican Congressional delegation is saying is that they’re going to put a whole lot of religious conservative positions in place now.

I’m expecting they’ll move very quickly on some easy things like taking away money from Planned Parenthood.

The only thing that Trump has indicated that he really cares about is making sure you remove the tax burden on people like him.

What’s going to happen to Obamacare?

What they’ve said is they’re going to get rid of Obamacare, but a lot of these things are run at the state level. Can they require states to remove coverage? Is there going to be lobbying from people who had coverage and are then going to lose it? To what extent are they going to stick with what they’re claiming, or are they going to decide that this may lose them enough votes that they don’t want to go that route?

One of the things Trump said he wanted to do is medical savings accounts. Medical savings accounts make no sense. If you take a look at health expenditures in every country including the U.S., most people are relatively healthy and don’t have high expenditures. A tiny number of people account for most of the health expenditures.

Nobody wants to insure the small number of people who are high-cost.

One of the problems you run into with these models is what exactly is happening to that small number of sick people?

So when he’s talking about medical savings accounts, how nice, but they don’t work for you if you have high needs.

�鶹��Ƶ political scientist Peter Loewen, head of the School of Public Policy & Governance spoke about changes to the Supreme Court and how that could impact the issue of abortion.

“I don't imagine Trump will do much on same sex marriage, thankfully so. That issue appears more or less settled.

“He will; however, appoint a new justice who as a part of a new conservative majority will likely be more open to hearing challenges to Roe v Wade. But even then, the decisions of the court rarely fulfill voters' every wish.”

Economic Policy

Andreas Park is an associate professor of finance at University of Toronto Mississauga, Institute of Management and Innovation and the Rotman School of Management. He explains the fluctuations in the international markets and weighs in on Trump's economic plan.

There was a dip in financial markets as the election results were coming in – what happened?

This dip happened at a time when the major markets were closed. The dip was really something in the futures market. It was noticeable that it happened. But at the end of the day, it’s not a reflection of the market as a whole.

If you look at the volatility at the moment, it’s actually very low. When you look at the volatility index – which is the major measure for volatility – there’s no indication that there’s a huge increase in volatility because of Trump. There is certainly some uncertainty involved. We don’t know what the man is like – what kind of decisions he’s really going to make.

What is Trump’s relationship with Wall Street?

You have to look at different levels. There’s the question of the regulation of financial institutions, to supervise what they’re doing and possibly to change some of the tax loopholes that some people who work on Wall Street enjoy and have the particular ability to exploit. Trump has come out very strongly against those loopholes and against people who exploit these loopholes.

But then when we think of financial markets as a whole, they should be to some degree a reflection of the economy. As far as markets are concerned, we should think about the real economy – Wall Street, stock prices, futures markets, exchange rates will reflect all of that.

One issue – which probably the banks hope for – is that given there is a Republican Congress, some of the regulations which they perceive to be burdensome will be changed. There are some parts of the regulation that came after the financial crisis that had unintended consequences that probably require some attention.

How will his economic policy affect Canada and the rest of the world?

Here’s one of the real concerns: he puts in a policy – huge tax cut of some form – that probably creates some economic boom in the short-term. But what happens if it goes south?

At the moment, we have a situation where there’s an extremely low interest rate. There’s no monetary policy instrument you have to avert a disaster in the economy. The only thing you have at this point is fiscal policy. You do poor fiscal policy, one way or another, you can get your country into a real problem.

If something bad happens in the U.S. – like the U.S. flies into a recession – of course Canada will suffer, and of course the rest of the world will suffer. We’re all connected.

At the same time if there is a boom, we will benefit from that short-term boom.

Should people be concerned about any of their personal investments?

We don’t know what’s happening. It could go either way. If he implements what he says he will do, I think things don’t look great because in the long-run he will probably create huge deficits and that has the capacity to create a prolonged recession.

If he kills Obamacare, short of the big cost-factor, you’re harming people who don’t have insurance. That takes money out of their pockets. That will have a negative economic impact on their spending behaviour.

The average investor should make sure that he/she is well-diversified – this is the usual advice.

Inside the Frankfurt Stock Exchange on the night of the Nov. 9 elections (photo by Thomas Lohnes/Getty)

U.S. elections

Goodbye Obama: �鶹��Ƶ professor reflects on the outgoing U.S. president's legacy

Read more about Pruessen's course on the Obama presidency

Read Pruessen's Newsweek op-ed "Trump's Campaign: A Barnum and Bailey World"

Finger on the Twitter? �鶹��Ƶ expert analyzes @realDonaldTrump

Read more in �鶹��Ƶ News about how Trump is influencing policy before he officially takes office

Donald Trump shaking up policy before inauguration: �鶹��Ƶ expert

Fallout from the U.S. presidential election: �鶹��Ƶ experts dissect the issues

Read �鶹��Ƶ News story on the results of the election

Read �鶹��Ƶ News story on what to expect from a Trump presidency

What now? �鶹��Ƶ experts discuss policy changes under President Trump

Climate Change: Matthew Hoffmann

Same-Sex Marriage, LGBT Rights: Brenda Cossman

Planned Parenthood, Obamacare: Raisa Deber, Peter Loewen

Economic Policy: Andreas Park

Climate Change

Same-Sex Marriage, LGBT Rights

Planned Parenthood, Obamacare

Economic Policy