Climate

Sustainable Future – Challenge Accepted! Green Tech & AI Ep. 3

siddiq22 — Thu, 18 May 2023 16:23:30 +0000

Sustainable Future – Challenge Accepted! Green Tech & AI Ep. 3 siddiq22 Thu, 05/18/2023 - 12:23

Topic

Our Community

Sustainable Future

Artificial Intelligence

Climate

Climate Change

Computer Science

Faculty of Arts & Science

Research & Innovation

Sustainability

How can technology be used to examine the impacts of climate change, accelerate sustainable innovation and empower communities to advance environmental justice?

In the third episode of the University of Toronto’s five-part video series – Sustainable Future - Challenge Accepted! – researchers share how they are using artificial intelligence, machine learning, climate informatics and data crowdsourcing to help inform an equity-based response to the climate crisis.

“We’re really trying to think about a human-centred, local, place-based approach to climate informatics that centres questions about equity and justice,” says Robert Soden, assistant professor in the department of computer science and School of the Environment in the Faculty of Arts & Science.

Vanessa Gray, a researcher in �鶹��Ƶ’s Technoscience Research Unit and co-lead of the Pollution Reporter App, reflects on how Indigenous data sovereignty is equipping communities with information and tools to protect themselves and hold polluters accountable.

Meanwhile, Laura Rosella, epidemiologist and associate professor at �鶹��Ƶ’s Dalla Lana School of Public Health, explains how AI-powered data analysis can help illuminate the complex links between climate change and the health and well-being of populations.

Watch Episode 3 of the Sustainable Future series

The Dungeness crab is losing its sense of smell, putting it at risk – and climate change may be to blame

Christopher.Sorensen — Tue, 09 May 2023 14:59:11 +0000

The Dungeness crab is losing its sense of smell, putting it at risk – and climate change may be to blame

Christopher.Sorensen Tue, 05/09/2023 - 10:59

Cutline

�鶹��Ƶ Scarborough researchers found that the Dungeness crab, popular among diners, is losing its sense of smell due to ocean acidification, which may explain why its numbers are thinning (photo by San Francisco Chronicle/Hearst via Getty Images)

Topic

Research & Innovation

Sustainability

�鶹��Ƶ Scarborough

A new study by researchers at the University of Toronto finds that climate change is causing a commercially significant marine crab to lose its sense of smell, which could partially explain why their populations are thinning.

The research was done on Dungeness crabs and found that ocean acidification causes them to physically sniff less, impacts their ability to detect food odours and even decreases activity in the sensory nerves responsible for smell.

Cosima Porteus

“This is the first study to look at the physiological effects of ocean acidification on the sense of smell in crabs,” says Cosima Porteus, an assistant professor in the department of biological sciences at �鶹��Ƶ Scarborough and co-author of the study along with post-doctoral researcher Andrea Durant.

The Earth’s oceans are becoming more acidic because they are absorbing increasing amounts of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Such ocean acidification is a direct consequence of burning fossil fuels and carbon pollution – and several studies have shown it’s having an impact on the behaviour of marine wildlife.

Dungeness crabs are an economically important species found along the Pacific coast, stretching from California to Alaska. They are one of the most popular crabs to eat and their fishery was valued at more than US$250 million in 2019.

Like most crabs, they have poor vision, so their sense of smell is crucial in finding food, mates, suitable habitats and avoiding predators, explains Porteus. They sniff through a process known as flicking, where they flick their antennules (small antenna) through the water to detect odours. Tiny neurons responsible for smell are located inside these antennules, which send electrical signals to the brain.

The researchers discovered two things when the crabs were exposed to ocean acidification: they were flicking less and their sensory neurons were 50 per cent less responsive to odours.

“Crabs increase their flicking rate when they detect an odour they are interested in, but in crabs that were exposed to ocean acidification, the odour had to be 10 times more concentrated before we saw an increase in flicking,” says Porteus.

There are a few potential reasons why ocean acidification may be impacting sense of smell in crabs. Porteus points to other research done at the University of Hull that showed ocean acidification disrupts odour molecules, which can impact how they bind to smell receptors in marine animals such as crabs.

For this study, published in the journal Global Change Biology, Porteus and Durant were able to test the electrical activity in the crabs’ sensory neurons to determine they were less responsive to odours. They also discovered that they had fewer receptors and their sensory neurons were physically shrinking by as much as 25 per cent in volume.

“These are active cells and if they aren’t detecting odours as much, they might be shrinking to conserve energy. It’s like a muscle that will shrink if you don’t use it,” Porteus says.

Porteus says reduced food detection could have implications for other economically important species such as Alaskan king crabs and snow crabs because their sense of smell functions the same way.

“Losing their sense of smell seems to be climate related, so this might partially explain some of the decline in their numbers,” Porteus says.

“If crabs are having trouble finding food, it stands to reason females won’t have as much energy to produce eggs.”

The research was supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada. Some of the analysis was performed at �鶹��Ƶ’s Centre for the Neurobiology of Stress.

Sustainable Future – Challenge Accepted! Climate Resilience Ep. 2

Christopher.Sorensen — Thu, 04 May 2023 13:27:53 +0000

Sustainable Future – Challenge Accepted! Climate Resilience Ep. 2 Christopher.Sorensen Thu, 05/04/2023 - 09:27

Topic

How does climate anxiety affect students and how do they feel about the future of a warming planet?

In the second episode of �鶹��Ƶ’s five-part video series – Sustainable Future - Challenge Accepted! – students from the University of Toronto Scarborough share their thoughts on eco-anxiety, the global impact of climate change and a path forward to sustainability.

“To reduce climate anxiety is really to take action… and as students we have the power to do that as well,” says Yao Yang Huang, a fourth-year student studying environmental chemistry at �鶹��Ƶ Scarborough.

A student-led effort, the video was directed and filmed by Charlotte Wargniez, who studies environmental geoscience at �鶹��Ƶ Scarborough, with additional camera work by Huang and editor Joel Famadico Jr.

Watch Episode 2 of the Sustainable Future series

�鶹��Ƶ-led collaboration to develop community-tailored clean energy technologies

lanthierj — Tue, 25 Apr 2023 13:57:30 +0000

�鶹��Ƶ-led collaboration to develop community-tailored clean energy technologies

lanthierj Tue, 04/25/2023 - 09:57

Cutline

It’s important to develop clean energy systems that meet the needs of individual communities, says Kate Neville, one of the lead researchers of the CANSTOREnergy project (photo by Kate Harris)

Adina Bresge

Topic

Breaking Research

Climate Positive Energy

Institutional Strategic Initiatives

Faculty of Applied Science & Engineering

Faculty of Arts & Science

Mechanical & Industrial Engineering

Political Science

Research & Innovation

School of the Environment

Sustainability

A University of Toronto-led collaboration developing clean energy technologies that can be tailored to the needs of different communities – from Canada’s remote North to populous southern Ontario – will receive support from the federal government.

The CANSTOREnergy project brings together researchers from 11 Canadian universities, along with community, utility and industry partners, to develop technologies that convert carbon-based emissions into useful products, such as fuels and raw materials, and create a net-zero means of seasonal storage for renewable energy that meets specific community needs.

Led by researchers from �鶹��Ƶ’s Climate Positive Energy initiative, the collaborative effort is being supported by $24 million through the federal New Frontiers in Research Fund’s 2022 Transformation Competition.

The project will deliberately focus on two very different regions – Yukon and the southern Ontario city of Hamilton – in recognition that there is no one-size-fits-all approach in a vast country like Canada.

“We want to think about addressing these big global challenges such as climate change. But we don’t solve them at the global scale,” says Kate Neville, one of the project’s lead researchers and an associate professor in �鶹��Ƶ’s department of political science and School of the Environment in the Faculty of Arts & Science.

“You solve them by thinking about what those challenges look like in lots of places and working with communities to find solutions that meet multiple needs.”

The project’s two sites highlight the different challenges Canadian regions face when considering how carbon conversion technologies can be successfully adapted to existing infrastructure, economic forces and social goals.

Yukon, for example, is not included in the electrical grid that connects much of the U.S. and Canada, and seasonal extremes limit the availability of renewable energy. As a result, many communities need to import diesel fuel during the harsh winter months – which comes at a high cost both environmentally and financially.

Hamilton, by contrast, is a densely populated urban centre that is plugged into the main North American power grid. Heavy industry fuels the local economy, but the environmental costs, such as air pollution, are unevenly distributed and disproportionately impact low-income and marginalized communities.

“Science and research are essential to solving the greatest challenges facing humanity today and in the future,” says François-Philippe Champagne, minister of innovation, science and industry. “That’s why our government is committed to continuing support for researchers who are pushing the boundaries of innovation, by investing in transformative, high-risk / high-reward research that will address issues that impact Canadians in all sectors of our economy and society.”

At the core of the project is a commitment to engaging community members about their energy challenges and goals and how carbon conversion technologies could fit into their future.

_ _ _

_ _

David Sinton is the nominated principal investigator of CANSTOREnergy and academic lead of the Climate Positive Energy institutional strategic initiative (photo by Lisa Lightbourn)

This engagement could ultimately determine the success of carbon conversion technologies, says David Sinton, nominated principal investigator of CANSTOREnergy and academic lead of Climate Positive Energy, one of several �鶹��Ƶ institutional strategic initiatives, and a professor of mechanical engineering in �鶹��Ƶ's Faculty of Applied Science & Engineering.

Technologies that perform in the lab don’t always work as well under real-world conditions, adds Sinton, who notes that the urgency of the climate challenge calls for an expedient way to pre-empt issues that may crop up during deployment.

“Too often, engineers – and I have experience in this – innovate while focusing on the technology, which is totally understandable. But when tech is developed without guidance from an end user … the subsequent iterations can be costly. 

“We don't have time for that decades-long iterative cycle that is the norm. We need a new approach and are testing that here.”

CANSTOREnergy’s research team comprises engineers, social scientists, economists and other experts from McMaster University, Yukon University, University of Waterloo, University of British Columbia, University of Victoria, University of Winnipeg, Toronto Metropolitan University, University of Calgary, Carleton University and Dalhousie University.

The researchers will receive guidance from stakeholders and advisers in industry, utilities, government and Indigenous nations.

"The University of Toronto welcomes the federal government’s critical support for this important research,” says Leah Cowen, �鶹��Ƶ's vice-president, research and innovation, and strategic initiatives. “Canada enjoys a global competitive advantage in the area of carbon capture research – and the CANSTOREnergy team, with its collaborative and interdisciplinary approach, will build on these strengths and help to optimize this technology to meet the needs of communities across the country.”

Since environmental justice is at the forefront of the CANSTOREnergy project, Neville says it’s vital that communities have a say in developing the clean energy systems that could power and empower them.

“It’s about imagining community futures in ways that meet the goals of equity and fairness,” says Neville.

“It’s thinking about how technology can help us undo some of the unjust systems that we have and help build something that is not only about climate change, but about a more just future.”

_ ___ _

�鶹��Ƶ study reveals new clues about the origins of Mount Everest's deadliest avalanche

Christopher.Sorensen — Fri, 12 Feb 2021 15:39:15 +0000

�鶹��Ƶ study reveals new clues about the origins of Mount Everest's deadliest avalanche__

Christopher.Sorensen Fri, 02/12/2021 - 10:39

Cutline

A photograph taken from Everest Base Camp shows the devastation resulting from a deadly avalanche on April 25, 2015 that was triggered by an earthquake (photo courtesy of R. Tullet)

Blake Eligh

Topic

Breaking Research

Temerty Faculty of Medicine

Climate

Physics

�鶹��Ƶ Mississauga

Women's College Hospital

On the afternoon of April 25, 2015, an earthquake rocked the Himalayas, causing widespread death and damage in the region. The magnitude 7.8 quake – the strongest ever recorded in the region – rattled glaciers and ice falls along a ridge just to the west of Mount Everest, sending an avalanche of ice and snow hurtling towards the base camp below. When the snow settled, 15 were dead and scores more were injured in what would become the deadliest day on the world’s highest mountain.

Now, new research from the University of Toronto is helping to explain what happened that day, revealing a growing risk of more deadly accidents in the future.

Kent Moore, a physics professor at �鶹��Ƶ Mississauga, studies climate conditions in the world’s most northerly and remote locations. Over the past 15 years he has collaborated with fellow climber John Semple, a surgeon at Toronto’s Women’s College Hospital and a professor at the Temerty Faculty of Medicine, to study how weather conditions affect the health and safety of climbers in the Himalayas.

For their latest study, published in High Altitude Medicine & Biology, Moore and Semple sought to better understand the conditions that led to the deadly 2015 avalanche. Their findings reveal that the 2015 earthquake triggered “a swarm of avalanches” and raise questions about the impact of climate change, as well as the need for improved modelling and forecasting in the region.

Danger on the Khumbu Glacier

Everest’s south base camp is located on the Khumbu Glacier, a flat plain on the Nepalese side of the mountain below the peaks of nearby Pumori, Lingtren and Kala Patthar. The pop-up tent city serves as a central hub for the 40,000 climbers and hikers who visit the area annually, as well as the porters and guides who support them.

Moore, who has trekked the Khumbu Valley three times, has witnessed a deadly avalanche there first-hand. In 2009, he was about 10 kilometers from the south base camp with his party when they spotted a plume of snow and ice in the distance. “When we got to base camp the next day, we learned there were three Sherpas lost,” he says.

“There’s a risk whenever you climb in this region that there is the potential for these avalanches,” he says.

Everest and the surrounding peaks are home to glaciers and steep ice falls, which hang off the side of the mountains like frozen waterfalls. Evidence of avalanches are marked by massive mounds of snow known as “avalanche cones” that occur where ice and snow have tumbled from above.

Despite the common occurrence of avalanches in the region, Moore says that little is known about their intensity or the stability of the glaciers that ring Khumbu Valley.

Tiny tents of the south Everest base camp show the scale of the massive piles of snow and ice known as “avalanche cones” that pour off the ridge between Lingtren and Pumori (photo courtesy of E. Simonson)

The source of the 2015 avalanche was a ridge between Pumori and Lingtren, about 900 metres above the camp. Working backwards, the researchers analyzed solar and wind data collected from weather stations located on Kala Patthar, another summit about 4 kilometres from the ridge. They discovered intriguing anomalies that help tell the story of what happened that day.

“It got really dark for a short period of about three or four minutes,” Moore says. “We interpret that to be [caused by] a giant plume of snow and ice crystals that moved past the weather station, so there was a reduction of solar radiation that was getting to the site.

“It happened really, really quickly. The amount of radiation was halved in 20 to 30 seconds. It speaks to the huge size of the cloud that it was sufficient to cause it to get dark at the station.”

The weather station also recorded bursts of gusting winds of variable speeds that changed directions. “We interpret that as being the sort of a chaotic wind field associated with an avalanche,” says Moore. “The wind was never blowing in one direction.”

The data showed three pulses where wind blew down the valley, suggesting three distinct avalanches separated by a few minutes – or what Moore refers to as a “swarm” of avalanches.

“No one on the ground noticed, because it was so chaotic,” he says. “But looking at this weather station data, it’s convincing that there were three of them.”

Growing risk of future avalanches

Moore says the findings of the avalanche study underscores the effect that climate change is having on the region, and the risk for future avalanches.

Since the 1980s, the average temperature in the region has increased by 1 C and the elevation of the freeze line, where the ground is frozen solid, has moved up 800 metres. Glaciers are also showing effects of warming.

“Glaciers are a really good marker for climate change because they don’t retract from year to year, but over decades,” says Moore. “Glaciers in the region are retracting up the valley. There’s concern that these glaciers that ring the Khumbu Valley are becoming more unstable and that in the future we will see more of these collapses.”

He suggests that it may be time to relocate the base camp out of harm’s way.

“That there were three avalanches tells us that the ice on the ridge is probably pretty unstable. We could see more avalanches coming from that direction.”

A plume of snow wafts from a minor avalanche that originated along the ridge between Pumori and Lingtren (photo courtesy of R. Tullet)

In a 2008 study, Moore and Semple analyzed Everest mortality data going back to the 1920s. While Western climber deaths occurred most often during descent from the peak, Sherpa deaths typically occurred lower on the mountain due to accidents like avalanches.

“Western climbers couldn’t survive without the incredible support of the Indigenous Sherpas and porters,” says Moore, adding that Nepalese locals work as guides and porters for foreign climbers by ferrying gear up and down the mountain – often without the aid of safety gear. “It’s very dangerous.”

“This whole enterprise is based on people putting their lives at risk and it’s really the Indigenous people of Nepal who are bearing those risks. Hopefully, this work will mitigate future loss of life in the region.”

The research was supported by the Fulbright Canada Foundation and the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada.

It's been hot, but not as hot as you think: �鶹��Ƶ expert breaks down Toronto's summer weather

noreen.rasbach — Thu, 02 Aug 2018 19:35:52 +0000

It's been hot, but not as hot as you think: �鶹��Ƶ expert breaks down Toronto's summer weather

noreen.rasbach Thu, 08/02/2018 - 15:35

Cutline

Temperatures between June 1 and July 15 made this year the third-warmest summer since 1988 in the Toronto area (photo by Shutterstock)

Topic

After an aggressively cold winter that gripped most of Canada, this summer seems to be burning with a similar vengeance.

Conor Anderson, a PhD candidate in the Climate Lab at the University of Toronto Scarborough, looked at the heat of this summer in Toronto in the context of the last 30 years in a recent blog post.

His findings? Temperatures between June 1 and July 15 made this year the third-warmest summer since 1988. And Anderson found that 2018, which saw three heat warnings, was actually not far above the average number of heat warnings over the last 30 years (2.72 warnings).

Writer Alexa Battler spoke to Anderson about the heat we’ve experienced this summer and the science behind what accounts for hot weather in Toronto.

You found that, this summer, the mean temperature for both day and night was about a degree-and-a-half warmer than the 30-year average. Why has it felt like such a hot summer?

It has felt like a hot summer this year because it has been a hot summer! The nighttime temperature was the most affected, it seems. This summer especially we’ve had a couple of really nasty warm periods, which have nudged those averages up.

Of course, we can put a special emphasis on your use of the word felt in this question. I think it is human nature to feel the extremes rather than the everyday weather. We’ve had lots of days this summer that saw temperatures in the low- to mid-20s, close to what we’d expect as seasonal for Toronto. Those don’t tend to be the days that stick out in our memory, though.

The Canada Day 2018 heat event was the longest in the past 30 years, if we leave room for one brief moment of relief. What kind of significance does this milestone have?

I think that the Canada Day heat event becomes more interesting within the wider context of this summer. In the month of July, we’ve seen temperature records broken across the world – an extended, deadly heatwave in Japan and sweltering temperatures across the world. In fact, the CBC put together a great roundup for a recent issue of the National Newsletter.

Our heatwave, which was really part of a continental scale event, is just another notch in the belt of summer 2018. Myriad studies exist that suggest that we should expect climate extremes to become more frequent, so this year may just be a preview of what’s to come.

You write that super-hot weather in Toronto is due to warm fronts of hot, tropical air. Why was there such an absence of polar air this summer and why did the tropical air hit so hard?

There seems to be a combination of factors that have led to the large proportion of tropical air over Toronto. This year in particular saw the formation of what some meteorologists call a “heat dome,” with the development of a ridge of high pressure south of the jet stream that trapped air and caused it to sink, and therefore compress and become warmer.

But this seems to be part of a larger pattern of change in the summertime composition of air masses at Toronto Pearson. We are seeing, overall, the replacement of polar air by tropical air, which seems to be indicative of changes in the summertime behaviour of the polar jet stream and a really interesting topic for further study.

Would you consider this weather to be proof of global warming?

Given that there is so much variation in the climate system, I don’t think that we can ever say that one or a few weather events are proof of global warming.

That said, our understanding of the greenhouse effect is based in the laws of physics, so we understand the mechanisms that drive global warming. We also have a long-term observational record that provides significant evidence that the earth is warming. In that sense, global warming really is “settled science.”

Was there anything that surprised you while conducting the research from your blog post?

As a climate scientist, it is sometimes hard to divorce my perception of the weather from the observed data record. For example, I am living in a new apartment this year, having moved from a basement apartment with air conditioning to the 22^nd floor of an apartment block. When the hot weather hit at the beginning of June, I was virtually certain that I was experiencing some of the hottest temperatures Toronto had ever seen. Of course, as I show in my blog, that is not entirely true. It was hot, and it was long, but I’ve experienced worse within my lifetime.

As climate change continues to wreaks havoc on large-scale weather patterns the world over, I think that the only thing that we can expect is that our expectations will probably be wrong.

To read the entire interview, visit Anderson’s blog here.

Meet Robert Wright, new dean of Forestry at �鶹��Ƶ

geoff.vendeville — Mon, 11 Sep 2017 10:04:57 +0000

Meet Robert Wright, new dean of Forestry at �鶹��Ƶ

geoff.vendeville Mon, 09/11/2017 - 06:04

Author legacy

Staff

Topic

Robert Wright works in an office lined with reminders of the past, but his thoughts are on the future and mapping a way forward for forest science research and education at �鶹��Ƶ.

Wright, a long-time member of �鶹��Ƶ’s academic community, is beginning a two-year term as dean of the Faculty of Forestry. A landscape architect, he is also director of the Centre for Landscape Research at the Daniels Faculty of Architecture, Landscape and Design.

He starts his new job as the university considers the best structure for forest science and forestry education to flourish at �鶹��Ƶ. Forestry has six full-time faculty members and 111 graduate students and for several years has faced questions about its future. Consultations, led by Professor Elizabeth Smyth, vice-dean, programs, at the School of Graduate Studies, took place this spring and summer. The university plans to release a discussion paper based on those discussions and will start a second round of consultations this fall.

Pointing to a black and white photograph on his office wall of a man seated on a horse – the Faculty’s first dean Bernhard Fernow - Wright says the Faculty has gone through many ups and downs since its founding. What has struck him, he said, is that researchers continue to be on the leading edge of so many complex issues, from battling the emerald ash borer and preserving urban forests, to developing new, wood-based materials and sustainable forestry practices.

“The more I am here, the more amazed I am at all that the faculty and students are doing,” he said.

His goal, he says, is to enable them to devote their attention to that work, without the distractions created by uncertainty.

“There is no hidden agenda here. We are really looking for a positive solution - and what that means and what that requires and how it will unfold is open,” he explained. “I see an opportunity to make things better. Given the right circumstances and structure, forestry can flourish.”

Running on empty: �鶹��Ƶ's Nick Eyles explores California’s historic drought for the CBC

lavende4 — Thu, 20 Oct 2016 16:00:20 +0000

Running on empty: �鶹��Ƶ's Nick Eyles explores California’s historic drought for the CBC

lavende4 Thu, 10/20/2016 - 12:00

Cutline

Nick Eyles in the Atacama desert

Don Campbell

Author legacy

Don Campbell

Topic

University of Toronto Scarborough

Climate

Environment

Nick Eyles has a passion for taking audiences on geological treks around the globe. As host of Geologic Journey for CBC’s The Nature of Things, he explored earth’s natural treasures while helping viewers unpack how our planet works.

Now, the University of Toronto Scarborough environmental science professor is turning his attention to California where an historic drought is ravaging the state, affecting not only farmers and city dwellers, but the natural environment as well. His new documentary Running on Empty, airs at 8 p.m. Oct. 20 on CBC Television.

Eyles, who is a recipient of the McNeil Medal from the Royal Society of Canada for communicating science to the public, spoke to writer Don Campbell about the drought that is unfolding in the Golden State.

Is it fair to say that the drought taking place in California is a natural disaster of an epic scale?

It certainly is, and I think it may well be a crucial turning point in the history of California. It has the potential to be much more damaging than earthquakes because it affects such a large area. It’s a pretty desperate situation. It’s the hottest and driest drought the state has experienced in 100 years, and a big worry is that it’s just the beginning of something longer. If you look at the record of recent climate preserved in tree rings and lake floor sediment, you can get a picture of paleo climates dating back thousands of years with mega droughts that lasted hundreds of years. What’s troubling is that this one is different because the temperature is hotter, so you’re getting more evaporation and more deadly bushfires. It’s beginning to look more and more like the beginnings of another megadrought.

What’s causing the drought?

It’s a deadly combination. There’s natural climate variability, which is basically being driven by sea surface temperature and complex patterns of ocean circulation not yet fully appreciated. Times of cool ocean waters and high pressure atmospheric systems appear to result in a lack of moisture inland. The fundamental problem has been lack of snow across the Sierra Nevada because this feeds groundwater below the Central Valley and rivers. Then, you have human-made climate warming, the full magnitude of which has yet to play out. And then there’s dramatic overuse of existing water by industry, agriculture and city dwellers. Quite simply, they are pumping water at rates that aren’t sustainable, especially with population growth.

The surface water allocation policies that are supposed to regulate how much river water any particular city can have were written many decades ago when there was more snow in the mountains, so they’re no longer valid under drought conditions. Then you have an old creaky administrative system, different water rights holders and a legal system that is incredibly Byzantine. The system can’t react quickly enough. There’s also massive overpumping of groundwater that is lowering the water table and actually sinking the Central Valley as water is pumped from underlying sediment, but they’re also lacking hydrogeological data and suitable management plans. This is a classic example of the tragedy of the commons. They are accelerating their studies of groundwater, but it takes decades to collect data and get accurate models, and the problem is right now.

What about conservation efforts?

Conservation has worked a bit, but it has lured people into a false sense of security. People began to relax a bit once they started conserving water especially with the wet winter last year, which unfortunately didn’t add much snow up in the mountains.

There is coastal desalinization, where seawater is converted at great expense, but building plants has been controversial, and new ones are far in the future. There have been significant efforts in treating wastewater, and this will grow in importance. Cities that used to dump treated sewage into rivers now can’t do that because the rivers are dry. They’ve developed highly innovative techniques to clean that water, which now goes to farms for irrigation.

How is the drought affecting the natural environment?

The natural environment is the big loser in all of this. Most of the water comes from snow in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, which then flows out west towards the Pacific Ocean but most of that is being diverted, taken south by canals to cities and the farms in the Central Valley and then piped up to Los Angeles. Some former wetlands now look like stubble fields. Some water has been diverted back to the natural environment in recent years, but in most people’s minds this is wasted because it flows back out to the Pacific. They fail to appreciate the aquatic ecosystems that are dependent on that water.

The saddest part for me was driving up the Sierra Nevada and seeing black bears all over the place. Normally they’re up in the mountains, feeding off berries. But there aren’t any, so they’re in the valley starving and scavenging for acorns. The Salton Sea, which used to be a large inland lake, has now dried out and is literally a dust bowl. As we were pulling out of the area one evening, a wall of dust was being blown up valley. It’s man-made environmental degradation on a massive scale. It just drove home the point that when it comes to water, the natural environment is a distant fourth behind cities, agriculture and industry.

What is the mood among farmers in California?

It’s pretty pessimistic. Many farmers have been there for multiple generations. Agriculture also employs a lot of people, and they’re also under a lot of stress financially. They feel unappreciated by city dwellers. They feel that city dwellers see them as greedy. The move away from vegetables to almonds hasn’t helped. Almond growing has become a huge industry because it’s a big cash crop, but you need four litres of water to grow one almond. Some groves are now being uprooted. It’s likely some farming communities will disappear completely.

Do you think the situation can improve?

It takes several years to get a desalinization plant up and running. As impressive as wastewater-treatment plants are, they also take years to plan and build. I think there will be a lot of years of real pain, and it will be the natural environment that suffers the most. I saw bottled drinking water imported from Hawaii and Alaska, even as far as Fiji. Eventually, they will look for water supplies elsewhere, maybe from their northern neighbour. Even without the current drought, they are short of water. What they fundamentally need is a systematic look at how they manage their water resources. This includes both surface and ground water and the creation of a statewide game plan as to how California will get through the next few decades.

From cloud particles to global warming: the numerical predicting of weather

lanthierj — Wed, 27 Apr 2016 20:33:54 +0000

From cloud particles to global warming: the numerical predicting of weather

lanthierj Wed, 04/27/2016 - 16:33

Cutline

(photo by mrpbps via flickr)

Peter Herriman

Author legacy

Peter Herriman

Topic

Subheadline

Fields Institute for Research in Mathematical Sciences hosts alumnus Howard Barker

Whether you turn to the Farmer’s Almanac, a 24-hour weather station or an app on your phone, weather predictions are a constant source of fascination for Canadians.

For a greater understanding of the math behind the science, the Fields Institute for Research in Mathematical Sciences at the University of Toronto is hosting a talk by alumnus Howard Barker on April 28.

A research scientist in the Improving Climate and Weather Prediction Models section at Environment Canada, Barker’s lecture is entitled “Prediction of Weather and Climate: From Sub-millimetre Cloud Particles to Global Warming”.

Fields writer Peter Herriman spoke with Barker about his research and upcoming lecture.

(This interview has been condensed for length.)

How important is accurate numerical weather prediction?
If a numerical model predicts that a deluge is likely to hit downtown Toronto within the next three hours, well, little can be done about it. But with climatic change, as predicted by climate models, comes weather pattern change.

Conventional climate models cannot make detailed weather forecasts for specific regions such as, for example, the GTA. If, however, climate predictions can be used to confidently drive an Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model for several years at high resolution for Southern Ontario, we would presumably get an idea of rates of occurrences of extreme weather events, ranging from winter storms to thunderstorms to droughts, and thus when and where our infrastructures need to be upgraded or added.

How accurate were the forecasts for the weather we experienced in the winter of 2015-2016? How accurate were the “global” temperatures for winter and summer of the past year?
The weather was pretty much as expected across much of Canada. We had advance notice of the large El Nino and knew what to expect. March 2016 was the 11th consecutive month with a record high global monthly-mean surface air temperature. This in itself is a record for persistence, and is pretty much in-line with what global climate models have been predicting for the past couple of decades.

Regarding the slightly diminished rise in global surface temperatures over the past decade or so, relative to the previous decade, it appears to have been due to energy going into the deep oceans. Moreover, it seems as though mean temperature is on the rise again at a rate resembling those of the 1990s.

What’s changed in recent years for weather and climate prediction?
Beginning in about 2000, data from various platforms, most importantly satellites, have been assimilated routinely into NWP models. This operation updates the initial conditions of the model and has resulted in much improved forecasts across Canada and around the world. More, and novel, data will only aid the effort.

Likewise, representations of physical processes, such as cloud physics, convection, and turbulence, have improved over the same period and they help improve weather prediction but more so climate prediction.

The ultimate goal is to develop unbiased representations of physical processes, for persistent biases can be anathema to the overall integrity of long climate simulations.

Since the magnitude of the simulated system is truly global, it is imperative that our numerical models be assessed from a global perspective. The most cost-effective way to do this is with satellites; both research and operational satellites. There are now several geostationary satellites as well as technically advanced radars and lasers (i.e., active sensors) on polar-orbiting satellites that provide information pertaining to atmospheric profiles; as opposed to two-dimensional imagery which is what comes from conventional passive sensors.

The other important point is computers and networks that transfer information. Significant portions of many of the world’s largest and faster computers are devoted to weather and climate operations and research.

Environment and Climate Change Canada is preparing to upgrade its supercomputer, and this always benefits forecasts via improved model resolution. Moreover, the amount of data handled in both NWP data assimilation systems and century-long climate simulations is staggering large, and it is not clear if affordable technologies can keep pace with scientific and societal demands.

Is there a consensus in the world concerning the prediction of weather and climate?
Uncertainties regarding the representations of clouds and their radiative properties have been flagged, for over 20 years, as the greatest source of uncertainty facing predictions of climatic change, and the weather that will accompany it.

Also, uncertainties pertaining to both greenhouse gas and particulate emission scenarios over the next century remain high.

This means that even if our models were perfect facsimiles of Earth, their practical value would be attenuated by the fact that we cannot accurately predict how to force them with radiative perturbations that stem from human activities.

But better prediction of severe weather, like hurricanes and tornadoes, has reduced losses of lives. Advanced warnings of snow events and episodes of poor air quality can save lives as well as reduce healthcare costs.

With climate models, their not-too-uplifting predictions, coupled with myriad observations from around the globe, have finally caught the attention, and hopes, of many Canadians; witness the politicians they have elected recently.

What else will will your lecture cover?
What I will attempt to convey is that both NWP and climate prediction require, and use, some of the most advanced technologies that humanity has to offer.

In order for these sciences to realize goals, which are set ever-higher by both their own communities and society at large, continued access to advancing technologies and highly educated people are essential.

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Peter Herriman is a writer with The Fields Institute for Research in Mathematical Sciences.

(See the original of the photo used above at Flickr)

Helping cyclists avoid smoggy routes in Toronto and Montreal: new research from �鶹��Ƶ

lanthierj — Thu, 21 Apr 2016 20:40:19 +0000

Helping cyclists avoid smoggy routes in Toronto and Montreal: new research from �鶹��Ƶ

lanthierj Thu, 04/21/2016 - 16:40

Cutline

Civil engineering post-doctoral researcher Sabreena Anowar and Professor Marianne Hatzopoulou are studying the risks of air pollution on cyclists and their impact on route choice. Photo by Tyler Irving

Tyler Irving

Author legacy

Tyler Irving

Topic

City & Culture

Faculty of Applied Science & Engineering

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It is essentially a Google Map with an extra layer representing the average concentration of pollutants in a given area, as measured by her team and collaborators. Using this data, algorithms can be constructed to work out not only the shortest route between two points, but also the one that exposes the cyclist to the lowest levels of air pollution.

Hatzopoulou intends to further refine the maps – for example, by incorporating real-time pollution concentrations instead of static data – but lately she has been pondering another question: are such tools actually useful to cyclists?

“There are a lot of factors that influence the choice of a cycling route besides pollution,” she says. “For example, there is safety, separation from traffic, elevation, distance, etc.

“Which ones would cyclists be willing to trade off in order to decrease their pollution exposure?”

Sabreena Anowar, a post-doctoral researcher on Hatzopoulou’s team, is working on an answer. She’s designed a survey that proposes several different cycling routes and asks cyclists to choose which one they would prefer.

“No route is perfect,” says Anowar. “They all vary in terms of traffic volume, pollution, elevation, travel time and other attributes.”

By measuring which routes people would choose for either a recreational ride or a commuting ride, Anowar and Hatzopoulou hope to better understand how cyclists factor the risks of pollution into their activities. This in turn can help improve the design of tools like the interactive maps.

The survey was launched in Toronto, Montreal, Orlando, Austin, New York in collaboration with researchers in those cities. It will be open at least until June, and Anowar and Hatzopoulou are hoping to get at least 3,000 participants. In addition to their own research, Anowar says that the data could also be useful for city planners.

“It will help identify how people value road infrastructure like separated lanes or signage,” says Anowar. “If we build more infrastructure like this, perhaps we can encourage people to cycle more.”

To help Hatzopoulou and Anowar in their research, complete the online survey for either a recreational ride or a commuting ride.

Tyler Irving is a Writer with the Faculty of Applied Science & Engineering

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